Experts say that the financial aid promised by Moscow to the authorities from Chisinau will allow filling in the gaps in the budget during the election campaign, but it will not solve the structural difficulties of Moldovan authorities and, additionally, Moscow pursues one goal și to drive Chisinau apart from the European project.
Analyst Igor Munteanu, director of the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives from Chișinău says that the generous gesture of the Kremlin that promised 500 million US dollars to President Voronin shall be treated in the light of the regional context. Moscow backed the Party of Communists from the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) as being a smaller evil” compared with the liberal and pro-European opposition, trying by this to take over the role of a disinterested Maecenas” who repays for the geopolitical loyalty of the communists. In reality, however, Moscow seeks to achieve a complete detachment of Chisinau from the European project, which entails reforms and standards in governance, thereof making Voronin liable to pay off the entire pending amount and even more.
It shall not be forgotten that Transnistria follows exactly the same scenario și takes credits under the excuse that more pending debts to Russia means more guarantees” offered by Moscow in lieu of the status quo. Or maybe at this moment President Voronin just copies the tactics chosen by the separatist leader from Tiraspol, Igor Smirnov. Having failed to obtain normal loans from IMF, Chisinau Government gets engaged in political debts”, which do not promise anything good in either short or long term. Those who congratulate Voronin today should not forget that the true price of this loan also incorporates huge debts owned by Transnistria, which, at this moment, is taken over by the contracting party and represents the price of the Transnistrian separatism. Thus, Moscow makes a move with the bishop and, at this moment, wins vital elements of the chess game played with EU and USA in an effort to regain its control over the sphere of influence” it pretends to have had in the ex-soviet region”, says Igor Munteanu.
On the other side, the analyst says that the relations between Moldova and EU are moving towards an impasse in several areas și political, economic and diplomatic, whereas the generosity” of Russia is poisoned by stakes and conditionality, which the public will get to know anyway.
In these conditions, the expert believes that the visit of President Voronin to Brussels planned for the subsequent weeks is endangered today from the point of view of its contents and format. The conditions for restoration of the political dialogue with the Republic of Moldova are quite clear for Brussels. It seems that only PCRM leaders pretend they do not understand the meaning of this. Regardless of this, Chisinau continues to quickly fulfill the orders received from Moscow, having forgotten about its own interest and being subjected to the reflexes of the pyramid of power” that could not have subsisted provided it took due account of the existence of several internal political stakeholders. During the last ballot, PCRM felt intimidated by the opposition and to ensure its victory in the last elections it resorted to dirty technologies, using the principle winners are not judged”. EU has responded with a series of clear-cut messages saying that renewal of political dialogue and economic support will be conditioned by unstained elections, democracy and enforcement of political pluralism”, says Igor Munteanu.
The expert says that being encouraged by Moscow, PCRM leaders experience a phony euphoria for the fact that they are taken into consideration by Kremlin and thus imagine they have a political capital that makes them indispensable. No doubts that this moment of euphoria is illusionary and puerile. The relations between Moldova and EU are moving towards a deadlock situation at several levels: political, economic and diplomatic, whereas the generosity of Russia is poisoned by stakes and conditionality which at a certain moment will become known by the public anyway. The saying Beware of the Greeks, even when these bestow gifts upon you” has never been more true”, says Igor Munteanu, Director of the Institute for Democracy and Social Initiative Viitorul”.
Expert of the Foreign Policy Association, Vlad Kulminski declares that Voronins visit to Moscow could be treated as a tactical movement and not a strategic cession. And this is explained by the fact that Voronin cannot but realize that in case he becomes fully submersed by the power of Moscow he will be deprived of the possibility to maneuver in his discussions with the Kremlin by using the card of the European aspirations of the Republic of Moldova.
Vlad Kulminski says that Russia tries to stop the growing influence of EU in the ex-soviet space and the fight is mainly carried out in regard to socio-cultural and financial-economic dimensions. In my opinion, on account of economic allocations only and without a solid geopolitical project, Russia will not be able to stop the objective and more and more ample process of estranging the countries of the so-called immediate neighborhood, i.e. countries from the ex-soviet space, whom EU offers, first of all, a very attractive socio-economic development model”, says Vlad Kulminski.
In this context, the expert presupposes that the Party of Communists tries to take advantage of the topic on reinforcement of EU positions in the Republic of Moldova and at the same time to benefit from a financial aid from Russia without making any strategic cessions linked with the existence of the Russian military forces in Moldova and obtainment of the veto right in issues related to geopolitical strategy of Moldova. It is less likely that the governing party will get totally under the power of Moscow because it will mean lose of control and capacity of maneuvering, as well as a drop from the status of top leadership from Chisinau to the status of some regional elites, which will not be viewed as sufficiently legitimate by EU”, says Vlad Kulminski.
In the opinion of the expert, support of pro-Russian electorate will play an important role in July 29th early elections. Besides, mobilization of this part of electorate becomes critical in the situation when the international community will try to carefully follow the course of election campaign, which might diminish the efficiency of administrative resource for the ruling party. In this context, mentions Vlad Kulminski, the entire atmosphere of Voronins visit to Moscow, including the fact that it took place on June 22, the date of commemorating the beginning of the fascist invasion in the USSR, comes to highlight once again that the Party of Communists is the only political formation enjoying the support of Moscow. This strategy proved to be a successful one for the Parliamentary elections of April 5th and PCRM intends to play the same card once again during July 29th early elections”, the expert points out.
Another aspect of Voronins visit to Moscow is the one related to financial aid of 500 million USD promised by Russia, says Vlad Kulminski. Economic crises and decrease in all chapters of budget revenues come in the height of the election campaign, while for communists it is extremely important not to have any pending arrears in social payments, which might strongly hit their image. "However, the likely assistance from Russia is a stick with two ends și this aid will be sufficient to cover the gaps in the budget during the election campaign period, but it will not resolve the structural challenges of Moldovan economy. This credit will enable the Republic of Moldova to overcome the financial crises only without serious social consequences, to maintain the rating of the ruling power and preserve its control over the state of affairs in the country”, says Vlad Kulminski.
According to Vlad Kulminski, structural challenges remain to be truly important for Moldovan economy today and they are related to excessive bond between political power and economic potential. For this reason, the credit granted by Russia will not enhance the competitiveness and long-term resistance of Moldovan economy. Excessive bond between political power and economic potential leads to monopolization of the market and impedes the development of entrepreneurial potential of the population, which hence hinders the appearance of the middle class that should become the underpinning basis for the long-term economic development of a country. These difficulties cannot be settled on account of a handful of financial aids. More than that, due to lack of some clear-cut conditions for the unfolding of structural reforms, such financial aids can make these negative tendencies in the economy even stronger and can reduce the pressure driven by economic reform implementation put on the ruling power ,Vlad Kulminski additionally points out.
Eugen Revenco, Program Director of the Foreign Policy Association from Chișinău stated that President Voronin currently faces a very difficult financial situation since for quite awhile he has been ignoring the existence of the crisis, which at the end of the day has been felt even at the Presidential villa in Condrita”. This winter he managed to carry out negotiations in such a way that the World Bank refused to give him a loan for road rehabilitation and infrastructure for the reason that the tender was shammed; and it looked like President Voronin had a personal and direct interest in the swindle, or at least this is what well-informed people in the given area say. Moreover, the Republic of Moldova has recently failed to negotiate some loans with the International Monetary Fund, as well as to obtain some credit lines from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development inclusively”, states Eugen Revenco.
He says that in the situation when Voronin has got an antagonized society, has a maximally polarized political class where each half does not see the other one but behind the prison bars, Vladimir Nikolayevich Voronin chooses to negotiate with an extremely skilled and experienced partner who knows how to take advantage of each of his weaknesses. There is no doubt that Voronin did not come well prepared to Moscow and that at this moment he does not have other possibilities to negotiate the provision of loans or other type of assistance in other places. Under the current conditions and circumstances, other partners are not willing to provide direct financial support via loans. Besides, World Bank and International Monetary Fund are stakeholders who need transparent conditions for loan provision, but the Russian Federation is not much concerned by how this loan will be channeled or how efficiently it will be used. For Russian Federation it is important to appear as a savior. We dont know whether this money will indeed reach the Republic of Moldova, but the electoral effect of these promises is incontestable”, says Eugen Revenco.
The expert also reminded that in his last interview Voronin clearly said that he was not interested in EU accession, while in his discussions with the high-ranking European officials Voronin additionally mentioned that from EU he expected only interventions in the issue of relationship with Romania in which EU cannot get involved any way, as well as facilitation of visa regime. It seems that in our region the European principle of soft- power becomes rather a myth than a reality and I am afraid that soon we will have to acknowledge that the ‘soft- power of the Russian Federation becomes more realistic and palpable”, says Eugen Revenco.
Speaking about Russias expectations, Eugen Revenco mentions that taking into account the commitments undertaken by Voronin on March 18, 2009 after signing the joint declaration with Smirnov and Medvedev, one might assume that as a gesture of response from Chisinau Russia expects to continue maintaining its military presence in Transnistria for an unlimited period of time, to officially declare Russian as a second state language, as well as to reach federalization of the Republic of Moldova as a solution of the Transnistrian conflict imposed by Moscow. The latter will be followed by the institution of a by-chamber Parliament that, in consequence, will slow down the European integration process. Time will show if this financial support of Voronin, which, at least, can be viewed as an electoral backing, will eventually get materialized or maybe it will turn that the Government will remain with tons of black oil received by Voronin during one of his last visits to Moscow”, concluded Eugen Revenco, Program Director of the Foreign Policy Association from Chisinau.
Journalist of the Moscow publication Kommersant, Vladimir Soloviov says that those leaders who quarrel with the West automatically become best friends of Moscow and in this regard Kremlin could not but take note of the anti-European declarations made by Voronin on the eve of his visit to Moscow. As the journalist stated, the visit of Voronin to Moscow one month before the early elections date is a proof that Russia puts a lot of trust on the PCRM leader. Soloviov, whose roots come from Transnistria and who follows with a lot of attention the developments taking place in Moldova, made a statement for Free Europe saying that anyway Voronin was awarded a political bonus after he was allowed to participate in a very important ceremony in Moscow next to the high-ranking state dignitaries of Russian Federation. Making reference to the citation of the Presidential administration and Russian Government, Soloviov concludes that Voronin is more suitable thanks to his aspirations that are lucid and quite foreseeable” in comparison with his political rivals who are attracted by the western pole exclusively.
At the same time, Moscow tries to create an impression that it has also friends in the CIS region, in particular after the most recent scandal with Lukashenko who crowned the serial with the participation of such actors as Turkmenistan, Ukraine and undoubtedly Georgia. Voronin was bestowed with the role of a trustworthy partner of the Kremlin and this is the explanation of the favorable treatment that the Moldovan President enjoys, considers Vladimir Soloviov.
Kommersant journalist says that although the agenda of this visit does not include issues like signing of some documents that might provide radical solutions for such jams as Transnistrian conflict, Voronin might nevertheless receive some minimum dividends, which he can use during the forthcoming early elections.
Soloviov believes that Kremlin did not overlook the statements made by Voronin before his Moscow visit, because as Soloviov says, those leaders who quarrel with the West automatically become the best friends of Moscow, and vise versa, those who try to build bridges with the West fall in disgrace, as indeed has happened to Lukashenko.
