March 2025 National Survey

The opinion poll is structured in two parts. The first part aims to assess the opinion of the population of the Republic of Moldova regarding recent external developments. The second part measures the degree of resilience of citizens to anti-EU and anti-democratic values ​​disinformation and the impact of civil society efforts to better inform society by comparing the level of knowledge of the population about certain sensitive topics measured in 2024 before the republican constitutional referendum and in March 2025.

Representative National Survey – Trends assessment

Every seventh person says they are interested in what is happening internationally with every fifth following closely the events.

  • International context
The international uncertain context is affecting Moldovan citizens as well.

62.1% of citizens believe that Moldova is linked to the international events. Yet, the influence is seen differently by different groups. For e.g. only 42% say that the change in the US position towards the EU and Ukraine will have for the Republic of Moldova negative effect.

The international context divides opinions about the peace negotiations in favor of Ukraine: now it’s more about emotions than facts.

ReArm versus Protections: 60% support Moldova’s consolidation of its army. The new context is making Moldovans aware of their week points.

  • Resilience Indicators
The weak points of a small state might become opportunities in communication to achieve foreign policy aims.

Six months after the Referendum – no change in the support towards the country’s EU accession. Yes- 63% support, less are ready to actively show their support.

The Referendum Campaigns had not influence people’s choice.

Majority can shape mindsets of minority – yet the referendum did not significantly contribute to achieving this goal.

E. Macron is the only international leader who registered a boos of positive image. D. Trump is seen in a neutral way.

Russia is still a non-aggressor for the half of the population.

  • Narratives & Counter Narratives
  • Key Findings
    ➢ Context, timing and format of the message matters.
    ➢ Link your messages to international actors and events to strengthen your points.
    ➢ How do you frame your message matters: the EU will make us economically better
    versus EU it is the best options that we have.
    ➢ If you will not talk about it, someone else will – Traditional Values.
    ➢ Build your message on something that is already there instead of trying to bring
    something entirely new.
    ➢ Shifting mindsets it is a long-term deal – 6 months are enough to test you approach not to
    change the world.
    ➢ Together we are stronger – BUT – coordinated campaigns instead of doing all of us the
    same.
    Download the opinion poll:

    http://www.ape.md/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Presentation-analysis_national-survey.pdf

The survey was organized within the framework of the project “Defining and combating anti-Western narratives in the Republic of Moldova”, implemented by the ASPEN Institute Romania in partnership with the Association for Foreign Policy and Community “WatchDog.MD” with the financial support of the Black Sea Trust of the German Marshall Fund.

The conclusions in this material do not necessarily represent the position of the donor and are the sole responsibility of the authors.

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